New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

To follow up on my previous post, I thought it might be good to examine the paper:
New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

Abstract: Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

If Dr. Landscheidt is correct about this, we are about to enter an extended period of much reduced solar activity and therefore an extended period of global cooling, which will offer the first real world test of the IPCC’s CO2 forced global warming claims. On the downside of this, a return to climate conditions not experienced since about 1670 by the year 2030 will bring much hardship to millions, as many of the world’s foodbowls fail due to extreme cold, while demand for fossil fuels will increase just so people can survive the extreme cold in higher latitudes.

Unfortunately, the current obsession with global warming pseudoscience combined with hefty increases in the price of carbon use being planned and/or implemented in various countries means that very few will be prepared for the sudden significant downturn in temperatures likely to begin manifesting during the next few years, and as is so often the case, the poor will be the ones that suffer most due to the incompetence of certain prominent scientists prepared to over state the soundness of their science on the basis of a prejudicial belief, combined with a well orchestrated media campaign that has convinced much of the public and policymakers of the need to make huge sacrifices in order to ‘save the planet’ from a human induced fever that in fact probably only exists in the minds of the ‘true believers’.

The rest of this post summarises this important paper, with a lengthy extract of what I consider to be the key part of the content – of course my summary is not a substute for reading the actual paper!

Dr. Landscheidt introduces this paper with discussion of the IPCC position on global warming and points to a growing list of publications showing a solar-climate connection.

He rounds up his introduction with a discussion of solar irradiance, and how eruptional activity and solar wind have a much stronger effect than irradiance, noting that the solar magnetic flux has increased by a factor of 2.3 in the 20th century corresponding with an 0.6C rise on global temperature, and how the solar flux energy is transferred to the Earth via magnetic and charged particle effects that cause circulation changes that propagate from the stratosphere downwards throough the atmosphere.

He goes on to further discuss the impact of solar eruptions on weather and climate, presenting research from Vostok consistantly showing a strong rise in temperature usually accompanied by a decrease in pressure after forbrush events, and from Oman showing that d18o from a dated stalagmite as a proxy for monsoonal activity closely resembles C14 from dated tree rings as a proxy for frequency and strength of solar eruptions over a period of more than 3000 years.

Next he discusses the correlation of the length of the 11 year cycle and northern hemisphere temperatures as per Christensen and Lassen 1991, and the fact that nearly all Gleissberg minima back to 300 A.D. coincided with cool climate in the Northern Hemisphere, and that Gleissberg maxima went along with warm climate.

He moves on to the predictable relationship between solar eruptions and global temperature as per Adler and Elías (2000), and notes that: “Thejll and Lassen (2000) draw the conclusion that the impact of solar activity on climate, prevailing for centuries, suddenly is no longer valid. Jumping to such a conclusion is not justified. Thejll and Lassen do not take into consideration that temperature lags solar activity by several years.”

He continues with a discussion of the aa-index of geomagnetic activity and shows that global temperature follows the aa-index curve with a lag of about 4 to 8 years, the only exception being the period of increased volcanic activity in the 1940’s, and with the oceans being a possible candidate for where the energy is stored which creates the lag.

Here is Dr Landscheidt’s ‘Figure 6’ graph from the paper:

Fig. 6: The solid curve shows the aa-index of geomagnetic activity, reflecting the effect of energetic solar eruptions near earth. The dashed curve plots a combination of global land air and sea surface temperature anomalies. The yearly data were subjected to repeated three-point smoothing. Temperature lags aa by 4 to 8 years, but follows the undulations of the aa-curve. The connection between the leading aa-extrema and the following temperature maxima or minima is highlighted by identical numbers. A disturbance around 1940 points to exceptional internal forcing.

And ‘Figure 7’ which extends the results of ‘Figure 6’:

Fig. 7: Extension of the data in Fig. 6. The aa-curve reaches

its highest maximum, marked by number 7, around 1990 and shows a steep decline afterwars. Allowing for a lag of 8 years, a maximum in the curve of global temperature should have occurred around 1998. This was the year with the highest temperature observed since the establishment of international meteorological services. This relationship points to protracted global cooling. As will be shown, solar activity is expected to decline for three decades. This contradicts the contention maintained by Thjell and Lassen (2000) and IPCC supporters that the sun’s impact on climate has faded away since decades.

He moves on to discuss Gleissberg cycles, climate changes as revealed by isotope anylysis of ice cores, and how there are strong indications of a dependable connection between minima and maxima in the Gleissberg cycle and cool and warm periods in climate, while noting that the cycle varies from 40 to 120 years making prediction difficult, however he also notes that the sun’s varying activity is linked to cycles in its irregular oscillation about the centre of mass of the solar system, and that these cycles are connected with climate phenomena and can be computed for centuries, so offer a means to forecast consecutive minima and maxima in the Gleissberg cycle and covarying phases of cool and warm climate.

He follows this with mention of the solar dynamo theory developed by Babcock, discusses the motion of the Sun around the Solar System Barycenter (or Center of Mass) and the consequent changes of angular momentum, and how this may explain observed changes in the spin momentum of the Sun.

Then he briefly revisits his remarkakable success (90%) with predicting solar flare activity, geomagnetic storms, his 1984 prediction that solar cycle 23 would be rather weaker than cycle 22 (as was the case), and various climate related predictions including drought and flood, global temperature extrema, and his largely successful ENSO forecasts – he finishes this section with the comment: “This forecast skill, solely based on cycles of solar activity, is irreconcilable with the IPCC’s allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century.”

For the next section discussing the 166-year cycle in variations of the rotary force driving the sun’s orbital motion, I have included an extended excerpt from the paper, as it seems important to me that the details are included both verbatim and in context for a proper understanding:
7. 166-year cycle in variations of the rotary force driving the sun’s orbital motion

The dynamics of the sun’s motion about the centre of mass can be defined quantitatively by the change in its orbital angular momentum L. The time rate of change in L is measured by its first derivative dL/dt. It defines the rotary force, the torque T driving the sun’s motion about the CM. Variations in the rotary force defined by the derivative dT/dt are a key quantity in this connection as they make it possible to forecast Gleissberg extrema for hundreds of years and even millennia.

A cycle of 166 years and its second harmonic of 83 years emerge when the time rate of change in the torque dT/dt is subjected to frequency analysis (Landscheidt, 1983). Cycles of this length, though not well known, were mentioned in the literature before. Brier (1979) found a period of just 83 years in the unsmoothed cosine transform of 2148 autocorrelations of 2628 monthly sunspot numbers. Cole (1973) confirmed this result when he investigated the power spectrum of sunspot data covering 1626 – 1968. He found a dominant peak at 84 years. Juckett (2000) derived periods of 165 and 84 years from his model of spin-orbit momentum exchange in the sun’s motion. As the wave length of the Gleissberg cycle is not far from the second harmonic of the 166-year cycle, it suggests itself to see whether the Gleissberg cycle and the dT/dt-cycle have synchronized minima and maxima. This is actually the case.

Gleissberg (1958) found the cycle named after him by smoothing the length of the 11-year sunspot cycle, a parameter that is only indirectly related to the sunspot number R measuring the intensity of sunspot activity. As it could be that the smaller or greater values of the positive and negative extrema of the dT/dt cycle have a similar parametric function, the amplitudes of these maxima and minima are taken to constitute a smoothed time series covering 2000 years. The interval is from A. D. 300 to 2300. The data were subjected to moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing (Lorczak) with a bandwidth of 60.

Figure 9 shows the result for the sub period 300 – 1200. Up to the phase reversal around 1120, indicated by an arrow, zero phases of the 166-year cycle, marked by empty circles, coincide within a relatively narrow margin with maxima in the Gleissberg cycle, indicated by filled triangles. Only close to the phase reversal the deviation of the secular maximum from the zero phase is wider. The epochs of Gleissberg minima are indicated by empty triangles. Up to the phase reversal, they consistently go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle. It makes no difference whether the extrema are positive or negative. This is reminiscent of the 11-year sunspot cycle with its exclusively positive amplitudes though the complete magnetic Hale cycle of 22 years shows positive and negative amplitudes indicating different magnetic polarities in consecutive 11-year cycles.

Fig. 9: Smoothed time series (A. D. 300 – 1200) of extrema in the change of the sun’s orbital rotary force dT/dt forming a cycle with a mean length of 166 years. Up to the phase reversal around 1120, set off by an arrow, zero phases in the cycle, marked by empty circles, coincide within a relatively narrow margin with observed maxima in the Gleissberg cycle indicated by filled triangles. Minima in the Gleissberg cycle, marked by empty triangles, go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle. The phase reversal explains the outstanding Medieval sunspot maximum. The secular maximum around 1100 was followed by another maximum around 1130 without an intermittent minimum. As Gleissberg maxima coincide with warm climate and minima with cool climate, the Medieval sunspot maximum was related to exceptionally warm climate.

The assessment of the epochs of minima and maxima by Gleissberg (1958) is based on data of auroral activity by Schove (1955). Hartmann (1972) has derived mean values of the epochs from data elaborated by Gleissberg, Schove, Link, and Henkel. These dates were used in Figures 9 and 10. An analysis covering 7000 years of data confirms not only the mean cycle length of 166 years, but also a mean interval of 83 years between consecutive positive and negative extrema. The phase reversal by [pi]/2 radians around 1120 had the effect that a Gleissberg-maximum around 1100 was followed by another maximum around 1130 without an intermittent secular minimum. This explains the Medieval sunspot maximum indirectly confirmed by radiocarbon evidence (Siscoe, 1978).

Figure 10 shows the 166-year cycle in the period 900 – 2300. After the phase reversal around 1120 all Gleissberg maxima, marked by filled triangles, rather closely coincide with extrema of the curve for hundreds of years, but around 1976 the pattern changed again because of a new phase reversal by [pi]/2 radians. After a Gleissberg maximum around 1952, a second Gleissberg maximum occurred around 1984 without an intermittent secular minimum. Only the single 11-year sunspot cycle 20 in the middle between the secular maxima showed lower sunspot activity, whereas cycles 18, 19, 21, and 22 reached very high levels of activity. The mean of the maxima of the five cycles 18 – 22 is R = 156, a value not directly observed before. We have to go back to the Medieval maximum, based on proxy data, to find a similar pattern. The phase reversals, indicated in Figure 10 by arrows, heuristically explain these special features occurring only twice in nearly 17 centuries. The recent Gleissberg maximum around 1984 is the first in a long sequence of maxima connected with zero phases in the 166-year cycle, four of which are marked by empty circles in Fig. 10. The following Gleissberg maxima should occur around 2069, 2159, and 2235.

Fig. 10: Same time series as in Fig. 9 for the years 900 – 2300. After the phase reversal around 1120, maxima in the Gleissberg cycle, indicated by filled triangles, consistently go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle, whereas Gleissberg minima fall at zero phases of the cycle. Another phase reversal around 1976 changed the pattern again. After a secular sunspot maximum around 1952, a second maximum followed around 1984 without an intermittent minimum in between. The effect was a grand sunspot maximum comparable to the outstanding maximum around 1120. The phase shift around 1976 reversed the pattern created by the phase reversal around 1120. The Gleissberg maximum around 1984 is the first in a long sequence of maxima going along with zero phases in the 166-year cycle. The following maxima should occur around 2069, 2159, and 2235. After 1976, Gleissberg minima will again go along with extrema in the 166-year cycle. The next secular minimum, indicated by an empty triangle, is to be expected around 2030. The following minima should occur around 2122 and 2201. The figure shows that the Gleissberg cycle behaves like a bistable oscillator. The current phase should last at least through 2500. Because of the link between Gleissberg cycle and climate, future periods of warmer or cooler climate can be predicted for hundreds of years. The next cool phase is to be expected around 2030.

After the phase reversal around 1976, secular minima are expected to coincide with extrema in the 166-year cycle. So the next Gleissberg minimum should occur around 2030, as indicated by an empty triangle. The following minima are to be expected around 2122 and 2201. The forecast of a secular minimum around 2030 is corroborated by a different approach. Sýkora et al. (2000) have found that variations in the brightness of the coronal green line are a long-range indicator of solar activity. They hold that “we are at the eve of a deep minimum of solar activity similar to that of the 19th century.�

8. Forecast of phase reversals in the 166-year cycle

The presented results indicate that the Gleissberg cycle is a bistable oscillator capable of assuming either of two states. The transition between these states seems to be triggered by special phases in the 166-year cycle which induce phase reversals. It attracts attention that the phase reversals shown in Figure 10 occur just before the deepest negative extrema relative to the respective environment. This points to quantitative thresholds which are confirmed by an additional case. The outstanding negative extremum preceding the Medieval maximum falls at A.D. 50. Just around this time the climax of the third grand sunspot maximum in the past two millenia occurred as indicated by strong 14C decreases (Eddy, 1977). Revealingly, this period coincides with the Roman climate optimum, as warm or even warmer than the Medieval optimum (Schönwiese, 1979). There are additional arguments of a more technical nature how to foresee phase reversals in the dT/dt–cycle (Landscheidt, 1983). All indicators show that the next phase reversal will not occur before 2500. So the current pattern should continue for hundreds of years and the next Gleissberg minimum should be linked to the next zero phase in the dT/dt-cycle in 2030.

9. Forecast of deep Gleissberg minima and cold climate around 2030 and 2200

An even more difficult question is whether future Gleissberg minima will be of the regular type with moderately reduced solar activity as around 1895, of the type of very weak activity like the Dalton minimum around 1810, or of the grand minimum type with nearly extinguished activity like the nadir of the Maunder minimum around 1670, the Spoerer minimum around 1490, the Wolf minimum around 1320, and the Norman minimum around 1010 (Stuiver and Quay, 1981). Fig. 11 offers a heuristic solution. It shows the time series of unsmoothed dT/dt-extrema for the interval 1000 – 2250. A consistent regularity attracts attention. Each time when the amplitude of a negative extremum goes below a low threshold, indicated by a dashed horizontal line, this coincides with a period of exceptionally weak solar activity.

Fig. 11: Time series of the unsmoothed extrema in the change of the sun’s orbital rotary force dT/dt for the years 1000 – 2250. Each time when the amplitude of a negative extremum goes below a low threshold, indicated by a dashed horizontal line, a period of exceptionally weak solar activity is observed. Two consecutive negative extrema transgressing the threshold indicate grand minima like the Maunder minimum (around 1670), the Spoerer minimum (around 1490), the Wolf minimum (around 1320), and the Norman minimum (around 1010), whereas a single extremum below the threshold goes along with events of the Dalton minimum type (around 1810 and 1170) not as severe as grand minima. So the Gleissberg minima around 2030 and 2200 should be of the Maunder minimum type. As climate is closely linked to the sun’s activity, conditions around 2030 and 2200 should approach those of the nadir of the Little Ice Age around 1670. As explained in the text, the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming is not in the way of this forecast exclusively based on the sun’s eruptional activity. Outstanding positive extrema have a similar function as to exceptionally warm periods like the Medieval Optimum and the modern warm period.

Two consecutive negative extrema transgressing the threshold indicate grand minima of the Maunder minimum type, whereas a single extremum below the threshold goes along with an event of the Dalton minimum type. The grand minima in Fig. 11 are indicated by their names. The single negative extremum around 1170 is of the Dalton-type. At this time solar activity caved in, but this lull was not long-lasting. According to Lamb (1977), who looked at the oxygen isotope record from north Greenland provided by Dansgaard, a period of sudden cooling occurred at the end of the 12th century. So I call this deep Gleissberg minimum after him.

Fig. 11 shows that solar activity of outstanding intensity and corresponding warm periods on Earth, too, are indicated by the extrema of dT/dt. As an example, the Medieval Optimum is marked by an arrow. It should be noted that the outstanding positive amplitude around 1120 is greater than the amplitudes around 1952 and 1984 indicating the modern Gleissberg maxima linked to warming not as high as around 1120 (Schönwiese, 1979). More details of this relationship will be presented elsewhere.

Without exception, the outstanding negative extrema coincide with periods of exceptionally weak solar activity and vice versa. So there are good reasons to expect that the coming Gleissberg minimum around 2030 will be a deep one. As there are three consecutive extrema below the quantitative threshold, there is a high probability that the event will be of the Maunder minimum type. This is also true as to the minimum around 2201, whereas the minimum around 2122 should be of the regular type, as can be seen in Fig. 11.

It has been shown that there is a close relationship between deep Gleissberg minima and cold climate. So the probability is high that the outstanding Gleissberg minima around 2030 and 2201 will go along with periods of cold climate comparable to the nadir of the Little Ice Age. As to the minimum around 2030, there are additional indications that global cooling is to be expected instead of global warming. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will show negative values up to at least 2016 (Landscheidt, 2001), and La Niñas will be more frequent and stronger than El Niños through 2018 (Landscheidt, 2000).

The heuristic results derived from the 166-year cycle are not yet corroborated by a detailed chain of cause and effect. Progress in this respect will be difficult as the theories of solar activity and climate change are still in a rudimentary stage of development, though there is progress as to the physical explanation of special solar-terrestrial relationships (Haigh, 1996; Tinsley and Yu, 2002).Yet the connection with solar system dynamics, the length of the involved data series covering millennia, and the skilful forecasts of solar activity and climate events based on the same foundation speak for the dependability of the forecast of the coming Gleissberg minima and their climatic impact.
He then goes on to discuss various problems with the IPCC version of CO2 warming, gives a brief ‘outlook’, and finishes with a list of sources cited.