Open Comments Thread

As an experiment, I thought I’d set up an open comments thread for your suggestions or general comments or whatever, and which may include offtopic material as well, so we shall see what happens …. over to you!

Note: the problem with the spam filter that was stopping some posting here has been fixed -however it also told a lie by telling people their comments were awaiting moderation, but it did not put them in the moderation cue, so for anyone that did encounter this problem, unfortunately the stopped comments are nowhere to be found. I apologise for any inconvenience, and plead that being new to blog admin, I am still learning how the various blog controls operate and interact with each other!

If anyone has any further problems, contact me by emailing:

carls AT qldnet DOT com DOT au

– written to avoid spam – most of you know what to do!

Newcomers: copy the email address above and paste it in the To: field of your email program, replace the AT part with @ and both cases of DOT with . and remove all blank spaces.

“Landscheidt is an astrologer”

I knew this issue would probably arise, so I might as well deal with it now.

I am quite aware that Dr Landscheidt studied astrology, as did Nicolas Copernicus, Johannes Kepler, Tycho Brahe, Issac Newton, and many other luminaries of science, so I would say that puts him in some pretty good company!

The fact of the matter is that I have also studied astrology – I think it goes with the territory of having intense curiousity about the universe and an open mind – but having done so I do not buy into the popularist and fatalist versions, but concede that there may indeed be “something in it”, especially in the sense that planetary cycles have been shown to effect the behaviour of the Sun, and in doing so the climate on the Earth.

Let me say right up front that I am not going to be investigating Dr Landscheidt’s more esoteric astrological material here on this blog, but rather will in the main be focussing on his solar cycle work which does have a physical basis, and which can be tested and verified or falsified, so therefore qualifies as science, no matter what some may think of his other interests.

As I have seen many of Dr Landscheidt’s climate predictions come to pass, along with a few misses, I consider his predictive material for solar activity and climate does have some merit, and is therefore worthy of further investigation.

Edit Note: Steve M deleted the offending comment on ClimateAudit the quote above was originally from, so I have removed the link and the comment from here, and shortened the reference in the title to just a generic version of the key phrase.

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

To follow up on my previous post, I thought it might be good to examine the paper:
New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

Abstract: Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

If Dr. Landscheidt is correct about this, we are about to enter an extended period of much reduced solar activity and therefore an extended period of global cooling, which will offer the first real world test of the IPCC’s CO2 forced global warming claims. On the downside of this, a return to climate conditions not experienced since about 1670 by the year 2030 will bring much hardship to millions, as many of the world’s foodbowls fail due to extreme cold, while demand for fossil fuels will increase just so people can survive the extreme cold in higher latitudes.

Unfortunately, the current obsession with global warming pseudoscience combined with hefty increases in the price of carbon use being planned and/or implemented in various countries means that very few will be prepared for the sudden significant downturn in temperatures likely to begin manifesting during the next few years, and as is so often the case, the poor will be the ones that suffer most due to the incompetence of certain prominent scientists prepared to over state the soundness of their science on the basis of a prejudicial belief, combined with a well orchestrated media campaign that has convinced much of the public and policymakers of the need to make huge sacrifices in order to ‘save the planet’ from a human induced fever that in fact probably only exists in the minds of the ‘true believers’.
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Dr Landscheidt’s Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

As we approach Solar minimum, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine what Dr Landscheidt had to say about future of Solar Cycles and how things look for upcoming solar cycle 24.

Perhaps the best approach is to take a close look at this definitive paper:

(Received 21 May 1999; accepted 13 September 1999)

Partitions of 178.8-year intervals between instances of retrograde motion in the Sun’s oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system seem to provide synchronization points for the timing of minima and maxima in the 11 -year sunspot cycle. In the investigated period 1632-1990, the statistical significance of the relationship goes beyond the level P = 0.001. The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R < 80) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R ~ 100).

The part I bolded is a most interesting prediction of upcoming solar activity.

As we have not yet reached solar minimum, and no high latitude cycle 24 spots have yet appeared, we may still be 12 to 18 months from minimum if recent cycles are anything to go by, and I venture a speculation that if no cycle 24 spots appear in the very near future then perhaps Dr Landscheidt should have also mentioned the other possible date of the upcoming solar max using his methods, 2013.6 (see details of his methods in the paper), which if it turns out to be true means a very long cycle which could indicate a very low sunspot max.
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