A Solar Step Change during late 2005?

ap step change 2005

Anthony Watts from WUWT has been harping on about the AP index step change during late 2005 nearly as long as me in regard to my own solar theory. But there are other events and data that seem to correspond very closely.

I have commented on the solar Angular Momentum change that occurs at the same time previously, but today while researching the “L&P Effect” I came across some amazing graphs. The graphs come from a presentation from Nagovitsyn, Pevtsov and Livingston (Bill) that I think displays Russian CRAO spot data that shows all sunspot size groups also experience a step change around late 2005.

livingston and Penn L&P effect

All four spot sizes reverse their current trends at late 2005 as if a flip was switched.

Now lets look further at the AM and solar path graphs of the same time frame.

carsten.jpg

Late 2005 the Sun enters its perturbed orbit about the SSB, this orbit is unusual and only occurs during solar slowdown. This has not happened since SC20 which was a weak cycle but the AM perturbation was late and weak. Before that we need to go to the Dalton Minimum cycles. If we look at Carl’s graph the unusual solar perturbation is also seen around late 2005.

amp event

The AMP event shown above is what caused the orbit change, too many coincidences going on here perhaps?

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6 comments on “A Solar Step Change during late 2005?

  1. Pingback: Confirmation of Cold Grand Solar Minimum | Musings from the Chiefio

  2. Pingback: Solar System: Holocene Lawler Events | MalagaBay

  3. Hi Geoff,

    Nice blog. I have a question.
    In the weak solar cycles during the Dalton minimum (SC5 – SC7), the solar peak seems to have come unusually late, 6 – 7 years after the start of the cycle, rather than the more common 4 years (based on monthly smoothed sunspots data SIDC).
    If the current cycle is similar than would we expect the same?
    A solar peak is now predicted for 2013, but based on these examples it could be delayed by 2 years.
    Did Landscheidt mention anything about this? Or any link where this has been discussed?

    Thanks
    Danny

    • Hi Danny, thanks for your interest. I am not sure the Dalton cycles were so long to the top, the records for SC5 are a bit scattered. It is possible the first cycle had an early peak if we look at the Group Sunspot Number (which had more observers) and SC24 could also do the same. SC6 doesn’t look all that different in timing but is low overall. I think the lower cycles in general tend to have flatter tops purely because they are not ramping up.

      Landscheidt to my knowledge did not comment on this, perhaps the data from the last grand minimum is not quite reliable enough to form conclusions.

      Geoff

      • Thanks for quick response. I already suspected that the data from 200 years ago may be a bit unreliable.
        Basically I had taken all weak cycles with a max SSN below 100 (SC1, SC5, SC6, SC7,SC10, SC12, SC13, SC14, SC16) and found they averaged 137 months long, with an average peak after 63 months.
        The strong cycles (max SSN above 100) averaged 129 months long with an average peak after 44 months.
        The weaker cycles being longer may partially explain why they peak later, but we can see this later peak in weak cycles as recently as in SC16, so maybe there is something to it.
        Anyway, with only 23 fully observed cycles it is hard to make any statistical conclusions, so I guess I’ll just have to watch and see what happens in SC24.

        REPLY:We are approaching 80 months right now so it seems we may have passed cycle max??

        • Yes the data during the last grand minimum is weak, but the cycles that you have researched are mainly normal cycles. My research suggests that the first cycle of a grand minimum is “special” as it is the only cycle that experiences the AMP event or huge perturbation of Angular Momentum. All other cycles are likely to be different.

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