Landsheidt Blog Admin Change

Due to my ongoing ill health while fighting a very aggressive cancer, I simply do not have time to do any justice to the work that needs to be done in furthering what Dr Landsheidt and many others were/are exploring with regards to Solar Activity Cycles and Extraterrestrial Influences on the Earth’s Climate.

As a consequence I put out an appeal for blog Administration assistance, and I am both thankful and happy to say that Geoff Sharp now has full Admin privileges assigned for this blog, and I am henceforth handing over the the day to day running of the blog into his more than capable hands.

Geoff has a range of editorial and graphic design skills that should aid him in revitalizing the look and feel of the blog over time while also expanding it’s scope to reach a broader audience, and I am looking forward with interest to see where he takes it.

I would also like to take this opportunity to extend a special thank-you to contributer Ulric Lyons for also putting up his hand and trying to get registered to take up Admin duties after I made my health issues public – I am sure Ulric will have more to contribute concerning his planetary position material when ready to do so, and encourage him to keep working at it.

Another well deserved thank-you goes to Auditblogs founder John A for not only providing the free Auditblogs blog hosting service that made this blog possible in the first place, but in also extending his valuable time by helping get Auditblogs registration issues sorted out – anyone who wants to help John A offset his out-of-pocket costs in providing this free service can do so using the donation box at Auditblogs.

I wish Geoff all the best as the new Admin for the Landscheidt Cycles Research blog.

Carl.

Health Issues

Just a quick note to let you all know that after a long period of illness I have been diagnosed as having a neuroendocrine cancer of the bladder that has metastasized into the lymph nodes in my pelvis and the bones in my hips and spine.

This means I will be quite busy trying to tilt the odds more in my favour, and will not be able to contribute much here for the forseeable future. 

I feel that there is important work to be done here, and I am quite prepared to grant admin privileges to one or more of the regular contributers to further things, as I am too preoccupied to continue with it myself  – just let me know via email and we can work it out.  

THE SUNSPOT CYCLE AND C24

Guest post by Ulric Lyons

THEORY:

1) The SS cycle is caused by heliocentric syzygies of Jupiter, Earth and Venus. The average time between the tightest alignments over 100yrs. is 11.086yrs. The alignments alternate between E opposite V in line with J in one cycle, and E and V together in line with J, in the next cycle, in sync with the magnetic reversal of the Sun.

2) The position of the center of each maximum moves relative to the tightest alignments, earlier if the cycle is augmented, and later if the cycle is diminished. C3 to C8 is a good example of this.

3) The amplitude of each cycle is governed by a) the relative positions of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus, and, b) the positions of E and V in relation to J, S and U.

4) The peaks on every cycle are largely due to syzygies of E+V, J+E, J+V and stelliums of all three. Hence the SS record can be seen to be a recording of these alignments, which usually can be correlated to stronger monthly temperature anomalies.

PROJECTIONS:

Maximum center for C24 estimated at 1yr. before the alignment center = early 2013. It will be augmented from 2010 to 2013, with peaks above C23, strongly in 2010, with August and October being likely dates for large solar flares.

The relative positions of U,S,J,E and V start to fall into diminished configurations from late 2013/early 2014, leading to a lower sunspot count in second half of the cycle. This will be accompanied by increasingly lower global temperatures from 2014 to 2020. A good measure of this can be seen by looking back 179yrs on the CET series:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Daily/HadCET_act.txt
ie., lookat years 1835 to 1841 for 2014 to 2020.

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Smoke & Pollen

Just a quick note to let visitors to this site know that due to my state of health I will not be able to contribute much here until further notice.

During the late-winter early-spring period every year I suffer pollen allergies that effect my sinuses and lungs, and my ability to focus and concentrate my attention on things, however this year the effects are being exacerbated by the ongoing smoke from bushfires for the last month, many of which are controlled burns to reduce unusually heavy fuel loads before the hot weather arrives later in the year

My health has become quite run down by this unrelenting assault on my immune system.

All my research projects are now on hold until I can breathe more easily and regain my ability for sustained concentration – my public participation in things will be limited to occasional posts on various forums, as I think I can manage that some of the time – however I may also need to let that go for a bit if my situation deteriorates further.

UPDATE 2007-08-14:

Was looking at the new BoM Brisbane doppler radar viewer and was quite interested to see the smoke from the fires clearly imaged in the area near the radar site!

See screen capture below (colour enhanced to show detail):

Brisbane Doppler Radar 2007-08-14

Note the large coloured areas showing the smoke near the radar site, and the red dot below the first ‘e’ in Beenleigh and another above the ‘o’ in Logan showing the positions of active fires with smoke rising fast above them!

Below is the latest visible light satpic so you can see the scattered cumulous clouds also depicted as small smudges on the radar for comparision:

Brisbane Visible Satpic 2007-08-14

Due to the time it takes the satellite to scan the Earth, the time of the satpic is about 0150 utc, about 22 minutes before the radar capture.

The GFS computer model is being optimistic about 50+mm of rain here next week:

Optimistic GFS model

Let’s hope it comes off, drowns the fires, and clears the pollens from the air – but I will not hold my breath waiting – GFS often starts bullish then backs off later – we have had no rain to speak of here for about 2 months now!

Meanwhile, I’m still half-dead from smoke and pollen here!!!

My location is just SW of the lower left corner of the marker for Miami in the radar image and the air is think with a smoke haze … um … I mean thick with smoke haze 😦 … I have a headache and my eyes are watering while I’m trying to write this …

UPDATE 2007-08-18:

Relief in sight at last!

GFS is getting more bullish as the days go by:

GFS 7.5 day Australia rain forecast 20070818 00Z

BoM Satellite image shows things are looking up:

BoM Aust Satpic 20070818 0330

Sea Surface Temperature anomoly is looking good for rain to develop in coastal SE Qld with warm area along coast:

Aust SST anomoly 20080816

And the Global SST anomoly shows La Nina is probably nearly here as well with a cool tongue extending west across the equatorial Pacific from Sth America, meaning a good wet season is likely here in the coming months:

Global SST anomaly 20070816

Looking forward to some decent rain to clear out the smoke and pollen so I can breathe freely again and think more clearly, as there are things I wish to get on with!

UPDATE 2007-08-21

Rain … lots of it!

We have had several inches over the last couple of days, a 50 knot East Coast Low [sub-tropical cyclone] has developed off the coast, the bushfires have been washed out, and the pollen has all blown away!

I am starting to breathe again, and should be feeling much more healthy within a few days as my body recovers from the smoke and pollen onslaught … what more can I say? 🙂

Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development

An interesting new paper may point to a way of improving on Dr Landscheidt’s methods:

Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development
by W J R Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe and N Willemse

Abstract:

This study is based on the numerical analysis of the properties of routinely observed hydrometeorological data which in South Africa alone is collected at a rate of more than half a million station days per year, with some records approaching 100 continuous years in length. The analysis of this data demonstrates an unequivocal synchronous linkage between these processes in South Africa and elsewhere, and solar activity. This confirms observations and reports by others in many countries during the past 150 years. It is also shown with a high degree of assurance that there is a synchronous linkage between the statistically significant, 21-year periodicity in these processes and the acceleration and deceleration of the sun as it moves through galactic space. Despite a diligent search, no evidence could be found of trends in the data that could be attributed to human activities. It is essential that this information be accommodated in water resource development and operation procedures in the years ahead.

I will expand on this as soon as I find the time.

Open Comments Thread

As an experiment, I thought I’d set up an open comments thread for your suggestions or general comments or whatever, and which may include offtopic material as well, so we shall see what happens …. over to you!

Note: the problem with the spam filter that was stopping some posting here has been fixed -however it also told a lie by telling people their comments were awaiting moderation, but it did not put them in the moderation cue, so for anyone that did encounter this problem, unfortunately the stopped comments are nowhere to be found. I apologise for any inconvenience, and plead that being new to blog admin, I am still learning how the various blog controls operate and interact with each other!

If anyone has any further problems, contact me by emailing:

carls AT qldnet DOT com DOT au

– written to avoid spam – most of you know what to do!

Newcomers: copy the email address above and paste it in the To: field of your email program, replace the AT part with @ and both cases of DOT with . and remove all blank spaces.

“Landscheidt is an astrologer”

I knew this issue would probably arise, so I might as well deal with it now.

I am quite aware that Dr Landscheidt studied astrology, as did Nicolas Copernicus, Johannes Kepler, Tycho Brahe, Issac Newton, and many other luminaries of science, so I would say that puts him in some pretty good company!

The fact of the matter is that I have also studied astrology – I think it goes with the territory of having intense curiousity about the universe and an open mind – but having done so I do not buy into the popularist and fatalist versions, but concede that there may indeed be “something in it”, especially in the sense that planetary cycles have been shown to effect the behaviour of the Sun, and in doing so the climate on the Earth.

Let me say right up front that I am not going to be investigating Dr Landscheidt’s more esoteric astrological material here on this blog, but rather will in the main be focussing on his solar cycle work which does have a physical basis, and which can be tested and verified or falsified, so therefore qualifies as science, no matter what some may think of his other interests.

As I have seen many of Dr Landscheidt’s climate predictions come to pass, along with a few misses, I consider his predictive material for solar activity and climate does have some merit, and is therefore worthy of further investigation.

Edit Note: Steve M deleted the offending comment on ClimateAudit the quote above was originally from, so I have removed the link and the comment from here, and shortened the reference in the title to just a generic version of the key phrase.

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

To follow up on my previous post, I thought it might be good to examine the paper:
New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

Abstract: Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

If Dr. Landscheidt is correct about this, we are about to enter an extended period of much reduced solar activity and therefore an extended period of global cooling, which will offer the first real world test of the IPCC’s CO2 forced global warming claims. On the downside of this, a return to climate conditions not experienced since about 1670 by the year 2030 will bring much hardship to millions, as many of the world’s foodbowls fail due to extreme cold, while demand for fossil fuels will increase just so people can survive the extreme cold in higher latitudes.

Unfortunately, the current obsession with global warming pseudoscience combined with hefty increases in the price of carbon use being planned and/or implemented in various countries means that very few will be prepared for the sudden significant downturn in temperatures likely to begin manifesting during the next few years, and as is so often the case, the poor will be the ones that suffer most due to the incompetence of certain prominent scientists prepared to over state the soundness of their science on the basis of a prejudicial belief, combined with a well orchestrated media campaign that has convinced much of the public and policymakers of the need to make huge sacrifices in order to ‘save the planet’ from a human induced fever that in fact probably only exists in the minds of the ‘true believers’.
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Dr Landscheidt’s Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

As we approach Solar minimum, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine what Dr Landscheidt had to say about future of Solar Cycles and how things look for upcoming solar cycle 24.

Perhaps the best approach is to take a close look at this definitive paper:

EXTREMA IN SUNSPOT CYCLE LINKED TO SUN’S MOTION
THEODOR LANDSCHEIDT
(Received 21 May 1999; accepted 13 September 1999)
Abstract.

Partitions of 178.8-year intervals between instances of retrograde motion in the Sun’s oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system seem to provide synchronization points for the timing of minima and maxima in the 11 -year sunspot cycle. In the investigated period 1632-1990, the statistical significance of the relationship goes beyond the level P = 0.001. The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R < 80) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R ~ 100).

The part I bolded is a most interesting prediction of upcoming solar activity.

As we have not yet reached solar minimum, and no high latitude cycle 24 spots have yet appeared, we may still be 12 to 18 months from minimum if recent cycles are anything to go by, and I venture a speculation that if no cycle 24 spots appear in the very near future then perhaps Dr Landscheidt should have also mentioned the other possible date of the upcoming solar max using his methods, 2013.6 (see details of his methods in the paper), which if it turns out to be true means a very long cycle which could indicate a very low sunspot max.
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Examination of Dr. Landscheidt’s Work

My intent is to work though parts of several of Dr. Landscheidt’s papers both to verify and if possible update some of his findings. My current thoughts are to start with some of his earlier work, as this is where he lays out his methods in the most detail.

This process will take some time as I have a life elsewhere, and I am a bit slow doing things anyway, so do not expect fast progress in this. Update 2007-Jun-01: As I tend to chop and change a bit, and am somewhat addicted to editing what I’ve written anyway, I may edit earlier posts at times, and will hopefully remember to indicate what I’ve changed!
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Dr Theodor Landscheidt & Solar Cycle Research

Over several decades until he passed away on May 20, 2004, Dr Theodor Landscheidt wrote extensively on the torque cycle of the planets in their orbits about the Sun causing a transference of angular momentum back and forth between the Sun and the planets in a quite predictable manner, and showed how it correlates quite well with both solar activity cycles and some aspects of the Earth’s climate.

Rather than rehash what is already written elsewhere, here are a couple of paragraphs quoted from the webpage So, What’s New In Our Universe? by Gary Sharp:
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