Oct 1 2009

Earth's Future Climate.

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Reader Ron De Haan suggested a graph showing future Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength might be of interest. We only have JPL data out to 3000AD so this is the current limit, but the outcome is indeed very interesting. If the Solar activity follows the Angular Momentum trend we are headed for another Medieval Warming Period type era on even a grander scale.

After the Landscheidt Minimum which will be short and sweet, there looks to be another Dalton type event which is not considered all that strong. After that the planet will stay on a warm plateau for hundreds of years, lets hope we have learned by then that the warming we will enjoy is a natural state. The graph shows us how unusual the preceding strong Grand Minima are in our history, which was ruled by strong Type “A” disturbances or as Gerry calls them “Retrograde Bumps”. From here on the AM strength is moving to weak and gradually the disturbances are moving back to Type “B” which are known for periods of reasonable solar stability. So there is no need for pessimism, our children will have it good.

The JPL data used to create the AM graphs as per Carl’s Graph has a range from -3000 to 3000, but I am working on another quantifying method using purely the Jovian planet angles which should allow us to check against the complete Holocene record as well as looking out as far as necessary. Thanks to Tayla Sharp for helping with the graph.

 

 

12 comments on “Earth's Future Climate.”

  1. So after this the Milankovitch Cycle could take over and put us in a 100,000 year glaciation with any Grand Minima trigger. Reading between the lines this is what Landscheidt predicts in one paper … I can’t remember which.

    Carl’s system is more precise.

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  2. Agree, Carl changed the landscape with his AM graph giving so much more information that Landscheidt would have dreamed for. Looking at the ice cores I am not sure if a grand minimum can set off an ice age (at least in the early stages of the down ramp), there always looks to be a fairly slow decline over 80,000 yrs or so. There is nothing big in the way of grand minima in the pipeline anyway for at least 1000 years and probably more (will need to look at the lineups after 3000)so all is looking good really.

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  3. I hope your right that we have a significantly longer period of time after this coming warm period, that is suggested before the end of this interglacial. It appears we need a couple millenia to embrace deductive reasoning. My knowledge of the ice core data started with David Archibald’s discussions and then going back through his references. I didn’t find the trends of the ending of the interglacials as benign, even the small step changes prior to the drop off would make where I live ‘arctic’. The trend back up appears to be choppier than the eventual down slide at the beginning of the interglacials since we been in the apparent embrace of the Milankovitch Cycle.

    The research suggesting the onset of a glaciation taking a couple decades as opposed to centuries is compelling as well if you ignore the populist hollywood twist to it.

    It would be interesting to overlay the glaciations and interglacials of the Quatenary Period with Angular Momentum. Then there are the factors in the Milankovitch Cycle as well …

    Thanks for keeping this site going as well. Just getting used to the other site. The comments there, on this article, are very interesting.

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  4. len,
    would you know how Archibald makes his predictions for thousands of years of glaciation ahead ? The Holoscene interglacial is dropping off slower than the Eemian but there’s also a knee to a faster dropoff.. Slide 21 of 60 in The Past and Future of Climate
    Is this all just about Milankovitch (integrated with inclination pendulum, precessions and all) ?

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  9. Geoff,

    Many measurements since 1960 indicate that:

    a.) The Sun is NOT a ball of hydrogen, but this lightest of all elements accumulates at the top of most stellar atmospheres;

    b.) The Sun formed on the remnant neutron star that remained after the precursor star exploded 5 Gy ago and ejected all of the material that now orbits the Sun; and

    c.) The Sun is heated by repulsive interactions between neutrons [1-4].

    Have you considered how a compact, energetic solar core might produce solar cycles?

    1. “Attraction and repulsion of nucleons: Sources of stellar energy”, J. Fusion Energy 19,(2001) 93-98.

    Click to access jfeinterbetnuc.pdf

    2. “€œNeutron repulsion confirmed as energy source”, J. Fusion Energy 20 (2002) 197-201.

    Click to access jfe-neutronrep.pdf

    3. “On the cosmic nuclear cycle and the similarity of nuclei and stars,” J. Fusion Energy 25 (2006) 107-114.

    http://arxiv.org/abs/nucl-th/0511051

    4. ” The Sun is a plasma diffuser that sorts atoms by mass,” Physics of Atomic Nuclei 69 (2006) 847-1856.

    http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0609509

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel

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  10. Around AD2450 starts a cluter of LIA type minmums, every 4th c.1157yr cluster is the worst (Heinrich event). From AD3600 will be the next very severe cluster.

    REPLY: Your keeping me busy Ulric, perhaps try to combine a few posts together?

    Reply

  11. I am strictly and amateur, trained mostly in economics. I have been interested in Landscheidt for years but find I am restricted often by my own self-teaching. I need a little help with the chart posted by Geoff Sharp on October 1, 2009 which compares 14c and angular momentum. My question is “is the 14c series a proxy for actual temperature”? It seems that it must be but I wanted to confirm that. Any help would be greatly appreciated. la.malmberg@shaw.ca

    Lynn

    Reply

    • Hi Lynn, thanks for your interest. The 14C is a proxy for solar activity not temperature. The 14C isotope is created in the upper atmosphere and is more abundant during times of low solar activity, thus the 14C values are flipped to show past solar activity.

      Reply

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